The classic - Generation III Nuclear Reactors
Small and advanced are great, but have you heard of Gen III?
There is a lot of talk of Small Modular Reactors and Advanced / Generation IV Reactors, which is good. I love progress.
However I am not counting out the classical Generation III Reactors.
What is know as Generation III Reactors are the latest and safest iteration of the reactors that are generating carbon free electricity all over the world.
And I believe Generation III Reactors will provide the majority of new nuclear (and energy in general) capacity for years to come.
There are two reasons I believe this. First, their size coupled with future demand for stable green electricity. Second, that there now exist supply chains capable of executing.
First
Generation 3 Reactors generate over 1000 MW electricity which makes them the biggest single electricity generating unit on any given grid except for some hydro. It is also the same as three to ten Small Modular Reactors.
Its is common to build two to four Gen III Reactors / Units on one site, making the total capacity 2000 to 5000 MW.
With grids around the world built for high capacity sites, and much of the energy consumption happening in high density such as cities and industrial regions I believe much demand will be in the thousands of MW where fossil fuels are substitute with nuclear.
(Not counting out SMR's as I believe refitting coal plats together with new grid tailoring and more dynamism projects will be important drivers - another post)
Second
There is now expertise and experience. It's very much known that all recent western nuclear power plant projects are over time and over budget. By a lot.
The construction time of the Flamanville project in France will end up at at least 16 years.
Some stated reasons I have read is; construction start before design is completed, red tape and anti-nuclear attitudes, bankruptcy, over ambitiousness. lack of experience and merging of designs. Which is all interesting subjects worthy of study.
My favorite is that they where all first of a kind.
However we are now in a situation where multiple western Gen III reactors are built and there are people with the experience and companies with the right tooling.
As long as the difficult people who state the difficult are let in to the room we can learn from experience and improve.
Also, nuclear power is the fastest way to decarbonize expect from finite hydro. It is not inherently slow as the mean build time in 2010's where 6,5 years. Japan built a reactor in 3,25 years. Here is a good post on nuclear power construction.
Inventory
So what can we buy?
Westinghouse is offering their AP1000. Its a 1100 MW reactor. One is complete in the US where a second unit is under construction, and four reactors are completed in China. Work has started to build one in Poland, while Ukraine and Slovakia might buy.
The AP1000 is a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), one of two main Gen III designs. It is designed to be modular, so most of the parts are produced in series.
EDF / Framatome is offering the EPR / EPR 2. It is a 1650 MW PWR reactor. One is completed in Finland while two is completed in China. One is under construction in UK and one in France.
The EPR 2 is a simplified version of the EPR. Franc has announced that they will build six of this version.
KEPCO is offering the APR-1400. 1455 MW PWR. Three are operational in South Korea and five is under construction there. And Three are operational in UAE and one is under construction.
There are also the Boiling Water Reactor designs. GEH has the Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor which is 1520 MW. The Advanced Boiling Water Reactor offered by GEH and Toshiba is said to be the first Gen III reactor and has one under construction in Japan.
I have not seen much writing in regards to Gen III BWR new builds. GEH has been focusing on the BWR SMR. However the way nations favorites domestic reactors I think we will see more of them now as Japan is getting back in shape. The same for the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries SRZ-1200, a 1200 MW PWR. And if the BWR's get som first new orders, it could open up export markets.
There is also SNC-Lavalin's CANDU. A Pressurized Heavy-Water Reactor that works a bit different from the other designs. Could be. The Indian IPHWR-700 is based on this design and might also be an export success!
As always, I have a database of players in the nuclear power industry, with descriptions. It includes 127 publicly traded companies. If you are interested in the database or are in need of consulting in regards to opportunities in the nuclear power space send me an email to nuclear@substack.com
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